It's been over a week since Boston stole Yoan Moncada from the Yankees, and I say stole because it's become apparent after the fact that Moncada was New York's to lose. FanGraph prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel has covered the story closely, both before the signing and after. This post will lean heavily on his take, which I'm comfortable with because he is so close to the story. He's spent time with Moncada, interviewed him for his podcast, and has monitored this whole thing closer than anyone from day one.
A lot of buzz favored New York in the run up to the signing, some of which was conjecture and speculation. But by the time MLB declared Moncada a free agent, (the process of which was almost a fiasco in and of itself), it was becoming clear New York was one of the two legitimate favorites, (along with the Dodgers), to sign the Cuban phenom. At this point I'm sure you're saying "But what about Boston? They were ones that eventually signed him." The reason Boston won the bidding comes down to two facts regarding the pre-signing favorites: 1] New York blatantly lowballed their offer, and 2] the Dodgers did not want to sign Moncada during this IFA signing period. LA actually made the highest bid at $35 million but it was contingent upon Moncada waiting until July 2nd so that the team could rack up other big money prospects as well. NYY and LAD took themselves out of it, (in different ways), which allowed Boston to sneak in there and win the sweepstakes.
The following screencaps are taken from McDaniel's prospect chat last Friday. (Note that the question is below the answer in the second and third screencaps):
The first screencap addresses the issue that is the most undeniable for management: how are a bunch of 16 year olds worth $34 million but a top 10 or 20 overall prospect not worth $60 million? This position is really indefensible and speaks to an inconsistent philosophy from management. I fully agree with Kiley's point that well run teams aren't scared of overpaying if they have conviction in their player evaluations...especially if they're flush with cash like NY.
The second screencap illustrates New York badly misjudged the situation, which is not encouraging going forward. Andrew Marchand asserted last week that Moncada preferred New York, which is probably due to Moncada's affinity for Cano when he played for NY (as Kiley revealed). What they should have done was shot for the moon with a $35 million bid, the difference of which is pretty minimal when compared to their final offer, (even after taxes). They didn't play to win, to borrow a sports metaphor...they played not to lose and it burned them badly. The third screencap highlights the severity of the mistake of allowing Moncada to go to prospect rich, hated rival Boston. It's a true double whammy.
While you could say Moncada is just one guy and it's not the end of the world, it speaks to an overarching problem with the franchise. In my opinion it clearly shows the Yankees have trouble making decisions and don't have a consistent philosophy. This is also evidenced by their actions last winter of forfeiting three 1st round draft picks, followed by an assertion that they would make the farm system their priority, (hard to do when you're not drafting until the 50s). Sprinkle in both innovatively blowing away the competition in last Summer's IFA market and then lowballing the "best 19 year old in the world" as Kiley put it and you have an INCREDIBLY INCONSISTENT policy. There is no telling how the team will act going forward, which is very disconcerting.
I understand if Yankees fans are tired of hearing about Moncada and just want to put it behind them. I feel that way too but before we do I feel it's important fans know more about what happened because management, (Hal in particular), has really been misleading and not forthcoming. Yankee fans, as blessed as we are with history of success, are also burdened with a high price of fandom. I can speak from personal experience traveling to several parks to watch New York play, the other teams in the league charge a premium when the Yankees come to town. And everybody knows NYY charges the highest prices for home game tickets. So in my opinion they owe us...they owe us sound decisions as they build this team for not only today but tomorrow as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment